The final numbers have been available for several months, but we thought a little recap of the November election at this time might give us some direction and points to ponder as we head into 2017. Candidacies will start to form throughout this year, as we prepare for 2018. We've chosen statistics to bolster our analysis, but the full complement of numbers are available here and here. If interested there is plenty for your research.
Johnson County 69.62%
State of Iowa 72.77%
Analysis: Even with such a well publicized election and well-vetted candidates Johnson County residents didn't come out to vote in line with voters in the State, or even with counties surrounding our own. Parties still have work to get the voters out on election day.
Turnout By Party
No Party's 63.71%
Analysis: "No Party" voters drag down the turnout statistics for Johnson County (and virtually every other county). It's obvious the many voters that fail to register a party probably don't ever intend to vote. They are fully divorced from the process. But we also see Republicans can't rest on our laurels, as we trailed the Democrats by nearly 3.5% in turning out voters. And since there are more of them than us, that small percentage represents sizable swath of missing Republican voters.
Turnout By Age
65 & Over 87.00%
Analysis: This is a well known statistic that people become better voters as they age. The numbers here pertain to Johnson County, and they reflect statewide averages except in the youngest voters. With such a large continent of 18 to 24 year old students in this county, this group is over-represented in the whole sample. But it also tells us when we're looking for voters, we'll probably have best results if we restrict our searches in the 35 and over age groups, as people in those brackets are more receptive to get-out-the-vote efforts.
Results by Candidate
Donald Trump won the election in Iowa by a surplus of 147,314 votes, and won all but 5 counties:
Johnson -29,156 votes
Charles Grassley won the election in Iowa by a surplus of 376,306 votes, and won all but 1 county:
Johnson -13,636 votes
Christopher Peters lost the election in Congressional District 2 (24 counties) to Dave Loebsack by 27,273 votes but won all but 8 counties:
Cedar -109 votes
Des Moines -2,101
Analysis: Charles Grassley, our long-serving and venerated US Senator might have swept the whole state this election but for the liberal voting block in Johnson County. Note, however, he lost by less than half the votes here than either Donald Trump or Christopher Peters who were on the same ballot. That's electoral strength in action. Donald Trump lost votes only in large metropolitan counties in Eastern Iowa, and as we know from past elections these are hard spots for Republicans to prevail. Christopher Peters faced voters in two of the same counties that gave trouble to Trump, but other counties in the district with large towns also did damage to Peters' chances. It's hard to win elections in this corner of the state with victories in small counties and sizable losses in large counties. Republican candidates that run here must consider how to reverse these voting patterns.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Johnson County Republicans celebrate the election season with a gathering in Solon. Come eat some BBQ with us and get your mind restocked with good politics.
Palmer House Stable in Solon, 200 E Main St. Doors open at 1:00 pm
Keynote speakers will be Pat Grassley and Bobby Kaufmann, denizens of the Iowa House. Other political types will doubtless be lurking.
We'll set out the donation bucket. Your financial support keeps the wheels turning. We have a little matter of an election to process in a few days.
Please RSVP by November 2nd to our Secretary, Cindi Michels. She may be reached at 319-321-0243 or at firstname.lastname@example.org
Sunday, August 28, 2016
Just Added: An open-house / grand opening is scheduled for Thursday, Sept. 15, beginning at 6:30 pm. Several candidates will be in attendance, so come out and hear what they have to say. Light refreshments will be served.
The 2016 Office is open and doing business. Stop in to pick up yard signs, and volunteer to help us make this election a success in Johnson County. We're located in North Liberty:
40 Sugar Creek Lane, Unit #2
This is behind the Casey's gas station on Zeller at Hwy 965. Current hours are 1pm to 5pm on weekdays, and 10am to 1pm on Saturday. Hours will expand as we get closer to the November election and more people volunteer as office staff.
Hope to see you soon.